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New Poll Tells Stories Behind State Voters' Opinions
Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 ; 06:00 AM | View Comments | Post Comment
Updated Tuesday, September 30, 2008; 01:03 PM


The West Virginia Wesleyan College Poll for The State Journal shows Republican John McCain with a double-digit lead in West Virginia in the presidential campaign.

By Ann Ali


While polls pop up with numbers attempting to predict a presidential winner, the West Virginia Wesleyan College poll for The State Journal tracks the profiles behind the numbers.

The poll, conducted this week by Orion Strategies, questioned 600 "likely voters," with emphasis placed on duplicating the West Virginia electorate as closely as possible in regard to party affiliation, age, gender and district distribution.

The poll asked for whom voters would vote if the November election took place today, and 51.7 percent of those polled responded they would vote for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

The Democratic candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., received 40.7 percent of the poll's respondents, with 4.5 percent answering "neither" and 3.2 percent responding they were unsure. Some national polls show Obama ahead.

The poll also asked who voters would select had Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., been the Democratic nominee; 52 percent said they would vote for Clinton.

The followup questions attempt to delve into voters' reasons.

A total of about 17 percent of respondents answered race played a "very important" or "somewhat important" part in their decisions of whom to support for president.

"It doesn't say if that's negative or positive, but the reason we're polling that is because everybody's talking about it, and we didn't have the answers," said Curtis Wilkerson, owner of Orion Strategies. "We expect a certain fudge factor because people will lie to you, but part of this was live call and part was automated, so they could just push one or two."

Wilkerson said the election eight years ago was categorized as "God, guns and gays." This year's election is "God, God, God."

When asked what accurately represents Obama's religious beliefs, 49 percent of those polled believed he was a denomination other than Christian. Obama describes himself as a Christian.

About 70 percent of those polled had a firearm in their home, 54 percent considered themselves "fundamentalists" or "evangelical" Christians, and about 12 percent were Catholic.

About 30 percent of those polled answered their household had a member of a labor union in it, which Wilkerson said showed the decreasing base labor unions have at election time.

About 61 percent of those polled said they would re-elect Gov. Joe Manchin and 30 percent would throw their vote behind Republican Russ Weeks, which Wilkerson said is the typical base for any opposition.

About 58 percent of those polled said they would support Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., and 39 percent said they would support Republican challenger Jay Wolfe.

While 9.5 percent of those polled weren't sure whom they would support for attorney general, 49 percent said they would support incumbent Democrat Darrell McGraw, and 41.5 said they would vote for Republican Dan Greear.

Wilkerson said those numbers may have been affected by anti-McGraw mailers in West Virginia homes at the same time as the poll.

When asked whether the West Virginia Legislature had been effective in addressing the state's most pressing needs, 21 percent thought it had. Slightly more than 60 percent said that it hasn't been effective.

Respondents were asked to describe their status in terms of political party. While about 63 percent of the state's voters are registered Democrats, about 53 percent of those polled described themselves as "mostly Democratic" or "leaning Democratic." About 11 percent described themselves as "completely independent," a count that Wilkerson said he expected to continue to shift in the future. The 2008 primaries marked the first time an independent voter could request a Democratic or Republican ballot.

Related Links:
   - View the complete list of poll questions and results

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